I’ve had people tell me that before you can decide who should be the number one pick in fantasy, you need to know whether it is a snake draft, PPR or standard, scoring values, how many teams are in the league, if they are experienced or novices, redraft or dynasty, so on and so forth.
Yet, some of those same people drafted Eddie Lacy and Andrew Luck with their first two picks last year.
I’m not saying the draft isn’t important. It’s always good to lay a solid foundation, but the waiver wire is where the battle is won year in and year out.
How many of you that spent months of your time breaking down stats and doing mock drafts actually drafted Devonta Freeman last year? Danny Woodhead? Chris Ivory? David Johnson? DeAngelo Williams as your number 1 back?
Well, after doing all your research this year, you know that those names make up half of last year’s top ten running backs, along with 3 other at least minimal surprises in Lamar Miller, Doug Martin and Todd Gurley. That means 2 out of every 10 owners drafted the right running back last year.
Yet, you went out and made the same mistake this year when you drafted last year’s stars expecting they would repeat their successes from last year. Of course some of them will, others will get injured, suspended, or just flat out suck and you will be left to find this year’s Charcandrick West, Thomas Rawls, and heaven forbid, Gary Barndige.
Speaking of which. Are you aware that almost everyone of you who turned over every stone on the landscape before your draft last year, somehow missed Tyler Eifert at a position where even a decent player can be fantasy gold?
That’s the beauty of this game. Everything is unpredictable from year to year, month to month, week to week, game to game and even, moment to moment. Sorry to ruin your legacy, but there is no such thing as a fantasy genius.
If you doubt me, think back to that week when you were up by 43 points going into Monday night and you had your kicker going and he had his flex player. You had an extra shot or two that night and an extra laugh at his expense, until your kicker missed both of his field goal attempts and his receiver had 10 catches, for 130 yards, and 3 TDs.
Or that night when all of your opponents players where done and you needed 5 points to win. You were bragging all day at work on Monday that you had your QB left to play. Then he was lost for the game on the first drive after going 3 and out and his backup dropped 30+ points.
The good thing is there is such a thing in fantasy as “elbow grease,” and even though you will rarely outthink your opponents, you can beat them by working hard and keeping your nose to the grindstone.
If drafting AB with the first pick overall was all it took to win your league, you wouldn’t wait til after the season to pay out the earnings.
And since we are on that subject, I hope you read the article by the guy predicting that this will be the year that AB finally busts. What? Are you kidding me? Well, if you were paying attention you saw the 5 or 6 red flags along the way… If not you better hope you were in the league where no one saw all the green flags surrounding Chris Hogan.